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Coronavirus – Are the Numbers of Cases Reliable?

Right now, we are being told that the novel coronavirus that causes the Covid-19 disease is such an existential threat to all of us that we need extreme measures to deal with it.  More than half the world’s population is bunkered down at home under effective house arrest; a form of medical martial law prevails of the streets; most “nonessential” shops and businesses are closed; and trust and social contact between people has almost completely broken down.  So is the threat from the new disease worthy of these unprecedented consequences?

Let’s take a close look at the figures.  A good source of official data which is updated regularly is the Worldometers Coronavirus page..  The latest figures here as of the time of writing (25th April 2020) are shown by the following summary snapshot from the site:

So, at this time we have more than two and a quarter million cases and more than 150,000 deaths.  That sounds pretty bad, right?  But we can only put this into context if we compare with the numbers for deaths and cases from other, broadly similar diseases and, for deaths, by comparing with global death rates as a whole.

I will return to the subject of death rates later, but firstly let’s concentrate on case numbers: how are these numbers being calculated?  We hear a lot about testing of suspected cases, but what do we know about these tests?

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The first thing to note is that, perhaps contrary to popular belief, there is not one standard test being used around the world to test for coronavirus infection; each country is more or less using its own methodology.

Also, as I have discussed in a previous post, tests are not a magic 100% reliable indicator of whether someone has a disease or not.  Some of them are really quite unreliable indeed.  It’s actually quite a technical challenge to make accurate tests for common diseases, particular those caused by viruses.  If it were that easy, the shops would be full of such test kits.  Do you not think there would be a huge market for a simple, accurate home test for, say, the flu?  And the market would undoubtedly be much bigger for home tests for embarrassing viral diseases such as herpes and sexually transmitted infections.

And even if it were possible to manufacture a fairly accurate test for a disease, if the disease you are testing for is uncommon (as is currently the case with Covid-19 despite all the media hype to the contrary) then the rate of false positives this test will give you will be really high.  I will go into more detail on this later to illustrate that the world is largely suffering from a pandemic of false positives for Covid-19 rather than of the disease itself.

The general approach to testing for Covid-19 can be gauged from the US Centre for Disease Control’s (CDC’s) web pages on testing  and their information for laboratories doing Covid-19 testing.  So, let’s take a look at the two main types of testing that are being done for Covid-19 around the world right now: polymerase chain reaction (PCR) based tests and serology/antibody-based tests.

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PCR Based Tests

Many SARS-CoV-2 tests are based on what is called “Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction” or RT-PCR.  This is a type of more general process called the polymerase chain reaction (PCR).  Wikipedia gives good general explanations of the principles of PCR testing as a whole, as well as the type of RT-PCR tests used for Covid-19 testing.

Without going into too many technical details here, the general idea of a PCR test is to take a sample from a patient and multiply up all the target DNA in the sample (using the polymerase chain reaction, PCR).  The target DNA sequence used is designed to try and uniquely identify the target virus or bacteria so that if this sequence is found you can be reasonably sure you have found the target organism.

Serology/Antibody Based Tests

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Given all the problems with PCR based testing, some companies and countries are investigating the use of antibody-based tests instead.  The idea here is to try and detect antibodies – proteins produced by the body to fight infection – against the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the blood or other bodily fluids of a patient. The UK is working on getting antibody tests available in bulk for their population.  The CDC in the US is also looking at developing such tests.

I won’t discuss these kinds of tests in so much detail because most countries including our own Ghana and health care systems are still mainly reliant on RT-PCR based testing.  This is partly because accurate antibody tests are not widely available, being both difficult and time consuming to prepare in great numbers.  But suffice to say that antibody tests, even when they have been successfully manufactured, are also subject to many problems too.

BY RISK OFORIWAA DAUDA

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What booze can do to you

Sikaman Palava
Sikaman Palava

Ethanol, the chemical compound present in most alcoholic drinks, is a neurotoxin, that is, a sub­stance that can damage or destroy the nervous system. Someone who is drunk is, in fact, suffering from a form of poisoning.

In large quantities, ethanol caus­es coma and death. For instance, among students in Japan, the prac­tice of ‘ikkinomi, or alcohol chug­ging, causes deaths every year.

The body is able to convert eth­anol into harmless substances, but this is not accomplished immediate­ly. If alcohol is consumed at a faster rate than the body can handle, ethanol builds up in the system and begins to interfere noticeably with brain function. In what way?

Speech, vision, coordination, thought, and behaviour are all connected with an incredibly com­plex series of chemical reactions in the brains neurons, or key cells. The presence of ethanol modifies those reactions, suppressing or enhancing the role of certain neutrontransmit­ters chemicals that relay signals from neuron to neuron.

The stream of information in the brain is thus altered, preventing the brain from functioning normally. That is why when a person drinks too much, he or she develops slurred speech, blurred vision, sluggish movement, and weakened be­havioural restraints and inhibitions, all common symptoms of intoxica­tion.

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Prolonged exposure to alcohol damages the liver

EXPOSURE

With prolonged exposure to alcohol, brain chemistry adapts to counter the poisonous effect of eth­anol and to maintain normal nerve function. This leads to tolerance, whereby the same amount of alcohol has less of an effect than it would have had previously.

Dependence occurs when the brain has adapted so much to the presence of alcohol that it cannot operate properly without it. The body craves alcohol to maintain the chemical balance.

When a person is deprived of alcohol, his brain chemistry is totally destabilised and withdrawal symp­toms, such as anxiety, trembling, or even seizures, set in.

Besides causing modifications of brain chemistry, alcohol abuse can lead to cell atrophy and destruction, altering the brain’s very structure. While partial recovery is possible with abstinence, some of this damage seems to be irreversible.

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Neurons that die are apparently never replaced, further affecting memory and other cognitive func­tions.

Damage to the brain is not just the result of long term exposure to alcohol.

Research seems to indicate that even relatively short periods of alco­hol abuse can be harmful.

LIVER DISEASE

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AND CANCER

The liver plays a vital role in me­tabolising food, combating infection, regulating blood flow and removing toxic substances, including alcohol, from the body.

Prolonged exposure to alcohol damages the liver in three stages. During the first state, the breaking down of ethanol slows the digestion of fats, causing them to build up in the liver.

This is called steatohepatitis, or fatty liver. In time, chronic inflam­mation of the liver, or hepatitis, sets in. While alcohol can cause hepatitis directly, it also appears to lower the body’s resistance to Hepatitis B and Hepatitis C viruses.

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If unchecked, inflammation causes cells to burst and die. Compounding this damage, alcohol seems to trigger the natural system of programmed cells death called apoptosis.

This final stage is cirrhosis. The vicious cycle of continuous inflamma­tion and cell destruction causes irre­versible scarring. Eventually, the liver becomes humpy, instead of remaining spongy.

Finally, scar tissue prevents blood from flowing normally, leading to liver failure and death.

Alcohol’s effect on the liver has another insidious side effect -the liver is less capable of playing its defensive role in counteracting the effect of cancer-forming agents.

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In addition to favouring the devel­opment of cancer of the liver, alcohol greatly increases the risk of cancer of the mouth, the pharynx, the larynx, and the oesophagus.

What is more, alcohol makes the mucous membranes in the mouth more easily penetrated by cancerous substances in tobacco, elevating the risk for smokers.

Women who drink daily are at greater risk of breast cancer. Accord­ing to one study, the risk for those who drank three or more alcoholic beverages per day was 69 per cent higher than that of nondrinkers.

POISONED BABIES

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A particularly tragic outcome of alcohol abuse is its effect on the unborn. “Alcohol is far worse for the developing fetus than any other abused drug,” reported by the ‘Inter­national Herald Tribune.’

When a pregnant woman drinks, her developing chin also drinks and the toxic effect of alcohol is espe­cial, devastating at this format stage of the fetus.

Alcohol causes irreversible damage to its central nervous system. Neurons do not form properly. Cells are killed off. Other cells end up located in the wrong place.

The result, fetal alcohol syndrome (FAS), is the foremost cause of mental retardation in newborns. Difficulties encountered by FAS children include intellectual impairment, language problems, developmental delay, be­havioural dysfunction or deficit, slow growth, hyper activity, and hearing and sight disorders. Many babies are also born with characteristic facial deformities.-Credit: AWAKE

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This article was first published on Saturday, November 5, 2005

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Islamic Position on Illicit Drugs (Part 2)

• Imam Alhaji Saeed Abdulai, the Author
• Imam Alhaji Saeed Abdulai, the Author

In Ghana, the Narcotics Control Commission Act, 2020 (Act 1019), prohibits the possession, use, trade, or cultivation of narcotic drugs without lawful authorisation.

The law now adopts a more public health-based model, emphasising rehabilitation and education while still maintain­ing punitive measures against trafficking and illegal posses­sion.

This opens doors for religious and social actors to play key roles in prevention and heal­ing.

How the Youth and General Society Are Typically Lured into Illicit Drugs;

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One of the primary gateways to drug use is peer pressure. Many young people are intro­duced to drugs by friends who make substance use appear fashionable or as a coping mechanism for stress, bore­dom, or emotional trauma.

In urban slums and some schools, peer groups become influential in shaping be­haviour, particularly when parental supervision is weak or societal structures have collapsed.

Another contributor is media influence—with movies, music, and social media sometimes glamorising substance use. Un­employment, poverty, broken homes, academic stress, and lack of religious education also contribute significantly.

Shaykh Abd al-Rahman al-Sa‘di explains that when faith weakens, individuals seek escape in destructive behaviours. Hence, strength­ening iman (faith) is a critical defence against temptation.

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Rescuing Victims: Rehabili­tation and Social Support

Those who fall into drug addiction must not be con­demned but rather supported with compassion and care. Islam emphasises mercy and hope:

“Say, O My servants who have transgressed against themselves [by sinning], do not despair of the mercy of Allah. Indeed, Allah forgives all sins.” (Qur’an 39:53).

Rehabilitation centres, faith-based recovery programmes, community counselling, and mosque-based interventions are all vital tools.

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Imams and scholars should be equipped with basic knowl­edge in addiction counselling. Collaboration with the Nar­cotics Control Commission and health institution can create models where religious guid­ance and medical treatment go hand-in-hand.

Impact of Illicit Drugs on Society

Illicit drug use damages physical health, corrupts moral values, and leads to crime and unemployment. It depletes a nation’s human capital, as youths and adults become dependent, mentally unstable, and economically unproductive. It also leads to violence, theft, and domestic abuse.

The Qur’an declares: “And do not throw yourselves into destruction with your own hands.” Qur’an 2:195)

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Impact of Illicit Drugs in Schools

In Ghana, the increasing prevalence of drug abuse in schools has led to absentee­ism, violent behaviour, ac­ademic failure, and mental health issues.

Some school dropouts have become part of gang culture, especially in urban areas, threatening future nation­al development. These environments must be purified and protected with strong policy, parental involvement, and faith-based education.

UNICEF, Ghana Health Ser­vice, and Other Reports

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UNICEF (2019) highlight­ed the correlation between substance abuse and early childhood trauma, noting that youth exposed to abuse, neglect, or poverty are more susceptible to drug use.

The Ghana Health Service’s 2022 report showed a 17 per cent rise in mental health cas­es linked to drug abuse, with youth between 15–35 years most affected.

Narcotics Control Commis­sion Statistics

According to the 2022 Annual Report of the Narcotics Con­trol Commission, over 8,000 arrests were made for drug offenses.

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Cannabis remains the most abused drug, with growing concerns about synthetic drugs and pharmaceutical abuse, especially tramadol and cough syrups with codeine.

Islamic Law and Maqasid

al-Shari‘ah

The five universal objectives of Islamic law (maqasid al-shari‘ah)—preserving religion (deen), life (nafs), intellect (‘aql), lineage (nasl), and wealth (maal)—are all endan­gered by drug abuse.

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Any initiative that protects these objectives is not just legally encouraged but reli­giously mandated.

Imam Al-Shatibi, in al-Mu­wafaqat, asserts that laws are designed not for hardship but to preserve human dignity and collective wellbeing.

Therefore, illicit drugs threaten the very fabric of what Shari’ah seeks to pro­tect:

1. Preservation of Religion (Hifz ad-Deen) – Drug use weakens a person’s sense of religious duty. Addicts often neglect prayer, fasting, and remembrance of Allah, falling into sin and heedlessness.

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2. Preservation of Life (Hifz an-Nafs) – Drugs increase the risk of premature death through overdose, suicide, or violence. Islam strictly forbids self-harm: “And do not kill yourselves.

Indeed, Allah is to you ever Merciful” (Qur’an 4:29).

3. Preservation of Intellect (Hifz al-‘A9ql) – One of the clearest reasons intoxicants are forbidden. The mind is the seat of moral judgment. Losing one’s intellect means losing the capacity for faith and responsibility.

4. Preservation of Lineage (Hifz an-Nasl) – Drug addiction often leads to moral decay, fornication, and broken fam­ilies, harming future genera­tions.

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5. Preservation of Wealth (Hifz al-Maal) – Addicts squan­der wealth on drugs, harming families and communities. Islam commands us to be cus­todians of our resources.

These objectives guide the Islamic legal position that drug abuse is not just a sin, but a social threat that must be collectively confronted.

By Imam Saeed Abdulai

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