False Predictions Of Election Results By Pollsters And Emerging Consequences

Political pollsters conduct opinion polls for political parties, politi­cians, advocacy groups, elected and government officials, think tanks and corporations among other group­ings. They use their knowledge of statistical analysis, social behaviour and survey methods to question rep­resentative samplings of either the general population, or certain de­mographic groups regarding political issues.

Their job duties among other things, are to conduct research on specific issue or set of issues by reviewing ref­erence material and conferring with clients, create or supervise the cre­ation of carefully worded questions in order to generate clear response and devise strategies regarding how and when the survey will be conducted.

DUTIES OF POLLSTERS

They also perform interviews in person, over the phone, by email or online, analyze survey data, while being sure to adhere to recognised standards regarding the interpreta­tion of complied data, communicate survey results to clients and ensure prompt and accurate assessment of findings.

Indeed, this is a specialised field with a clearly defined aims and objectives that will produce good, perfect and accurate results for cli­ents so that they will depend or rely upon them to plan their strategies to promote their business objectives and other tangible assessment. The practitioners in this noble profession who may be political science degree holders or students pursuing political science in various tertiary institutions and universities as well as well- es­tablished institutions, have an in-depth knowledge about election and how it is conducted and above all a deep understanding about the whole process of election, data collection and gathering, interviews among others and are well trained to accom­plish the noble task.

POLLSTER IS SPECIALISED JOB

It is important to state that not every person can just stand up and assume the role or title of pollster for the sake of it. You may have a little background on mathematics and data gathering and collection, but that will not guarantee you to be a pollster or to parade yourself as one since it is a specialised area. I am not a pollster and I cannot be one because I don’t have the qualities and pedigree to be one.

I am a journalist, but a very good one though, with the simple task of educating, informing and entertaining people about issues and events hap­pening around them so that they will be well informed in order not to be left behind, fall astray or kept in the dark as far as news is concerned.

Besides, I continue to use my God-given talent to write about all manner of interesting articles for readers to assimilate and enjoy. I criticise when it is due and offer constructive suggestions when and where necessary. This is the type of profession and the job I have been trained to do and I enjoy it each and every day.

SELF-STYLED POLLSTERS

I have decided to go or follow this tangent because of the way some self-styled pollsters are churning out inaccurate results to Ghanaians of late, thus creating tension and anx­iety in the political space. I do not intend to mention names of people or individuals involved in this falsehood but it is happening and the recent by-election in Kumawu in the Ashanti Region and Assin North in the Central Region, attested clearly to this fact.

I am not downplaying or degrading every pollster in this country but only cautioning that those who don’t have the pedigree to forecast and predict accurately need to advise themselves because their actions can cause con­troversy and chaos among the people. These ‘try and error’ predictions must give way to proper and constructive analysis and data collections that are result-oriented.

KUMAWU BY- ELECTION

In the Kumawu by-election that was held on May 23, 2022, it was clear and evident that the New Patriot­ic Party (NPP) was going to win the election hands down because the area is a stronghold of the party. You don’t need any pollster to predict the outcome of that election. It was a forgone conclusion for the NPP candi­date, Ernest Yaw Annim who won by 70 per cent representing 15,264 votes with the National Democratic Con­gress (NDC) candidate, Kwasi Amank­waa, obtaining 3,723 votes represent­ing 17.29 per cent of the valid votes cast. The only duty of a pollster in the Kumawu by election is to predict whether there were appreciation or depreciation of votes for both candi­dates.

ASSIN NORTH BY-ELECTION

The Assin North by-election was a different ‘ball game’ altogether. The place had been a swing constituen­cy with both the NDC and the NPP winning at a point in time during the general elections and that made that election very unique in terms of who would emerge the winner. More so, the candidates involved, especially the NDC candidate, James Gyakye Quayson, who was booted out of parliament by a Supreme Court ruling on his dual citizenship, gave cause for those pollsters to do their own pre­dictions. The NDC defied all odds and fielded the embattled Quayson while the NPP as a strategy brought Charles Opoku from the same area where the NDC candidate hails from to provide a stiff opposition.

NPP IN ASSIN NORTH

Prior to that election, the NPP mar­shalled all resources including exca­vators and earth moving equipment to the constituency to re-shape some of their bad roads in the midst of rains. An astrotech football pitch had to be commissioned in the rain by the Vice President Alhaji Mahamudu Bawumia, all in an attempt to garner and gather more votes for the NPP candidates. The powerful team led by President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo him­self, travelled to the Assin North for a full-scale campaign for their candi­date.

NDC AT ASSIN NORTH

The NDC with Its leader, John Dramani Mahama, MPs and party functionaries also went on campaign trail in the Assin North Constituen­cy. Accra was virtually deserted on the election day. Days before the election in the Assin North, pollsters, some of whom were not known, started putting and throwing figures across based on survey they claimed they have conducted in the area, having spoken to a few people in the constituency. Most of these pollsters predicted a done deal for the NPP candidate because of the last-minute campaign by the President which gave them high hopes. However, their predictions did not materialise as Quayson managed to win convincingly with 17,245 votes representing 57.56 percent of the valid votes cast with the NPP Charles Opoku placing second with 12,630 votes representing 42.15 percent.

TRY AND ERROR POLLSTERS

All those scenarios pointed to the fact that the so-called pollsters were only engaged in a ‘try and error’ or speculation business, using the high -profile personalities involved in the campaign exercise as their yardstick, especially in the case of the Assin North by-election. In fact, there had been several occasions in the past when some of these most established institutions have had accurate results in their predictions, but this time round, they got everything wrong.

POLLSTERS AND 2024 ELECTIONS

Very soon, we will be heading towards the presidential and parlia­mentary elections and these organisa­tions and individual pollsters will start doing their own thing to predict the outcome of the elections. Nobody is baring them from carrying out their individual mandate and there is no law in this country that bars any per­son or group of persons from carrying out election surveys and predicting the outcomes. However, in doing this self-assigned job, one need to be careful and circumspect about these outcomes in order not to deceive and cause disaffection among the pop­ulace. It is interesting to note that even so-called pastors, evangelists, prophets of doom and ‘what not’, have joined the fray of pollsters, predicting and churning out election results which eventually turned out to be false.

NPP FLAGBEARERSHIP RACE

Shortly, the NPP will be electing its flag-bearer in a hectic contest in­volving 10 contestants namely, Alhaji Mahamudu Bawumia, the current Vice President of Ghana, Mr. Allan Kwadwo Kyerematen, Boakye Agyar­ko, Kwabena Agyei Agyepong, Francis Addai-Nimoh, Dr Kofi Konadu Apraku, Dr. Owusu Afriyie Akoto, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, Joe Ghartey and Kwadwo Poku. All these contestants are reputable and qualified person­alities who have what it takes to be the presidential nominee for the NPP. However, it is only one who will get the nod to lead the party in the 2024 presidential election.

As usual, the so-called pollsters, religious groupings and forecasters will be at their wit end doing their own thing and predicting the outcome of the primaries in what they termed data collection from delegates who will be casting their ballots to pick one among the lot. When they fail in their attempt with their “try and error” business, they will then turn to the supporters of the NPP and apologise for their ineffectiveness. We need to thread cautiously in this regard.

Contact email/WhatsApp of au­thor: ataani2000@yahoo.com 0277753946/028933366

By Charles Neequaye