Harris’ pick highlights the power of social media — but it may make the electoral math harder

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz hadn’t been in the top tier of potential running mates for Kamala Harris until the past few weeks. But his selection to join the vice president on the Democratic ticket underscores both the power of social media and of being relatively affable and nondivisive.

The fact that Harris selected a candidate who does well online shouldn’t be surprising — this is the campaign that has embraced “coconut tree” and “brat.”

But is the Walz pick indicative of a campaign that is too online?

That’s a fair question given that Harris skipped over Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro in favor of Walz. Shapiro, who was long seen as a front-runner for the vice presidential pick, divided a lot of the online left over his perceived views on the Israelis and Palestinians.

Notably, Walz shares many of those same views but received far less backlash than Shapiro, who is Jewish.

One of the first rules when it comes to a vice presidential pick is to “Do no harm.” Harris likely did no harm with this pick. The big question now is whether she left points on the board by choosing Walz over Shapiro.

Minnesota is likely not going to be competitive this fall. No Republican nominee for president has carried the state since 1972, and polling in the North Star State since Harris entered the race has shown that the streak is likely to continue.

Pennsylvania, on the other hand, is almost certainly a must-win state for Harris. In fact, it is probably the most important swing state this cycle, and the polling there has been very tight.

Shapiro holds a 61% favorable rating in Pennsylvania and outperformed Biden’s 2020 baseline by 14 points in 2022.

What we can say, though, is that Walz is not likely to help Harris with many swing voters. He did less than a point better than Biden in Minnesota when he won reelection in 2022. In fact, Shapiro seems to have done better with White voters without a college degree in Pennsylvania than Walz did with the same demographic in his state two years ago.

Analysis from CNN’s Harry Enten