Features
False Predictions Of Election Results By Pollsters And Emerging Consequences
Political pollsters conduct opinion polls for political parties, politicians, advocacy groups, elected and government officials, think tanks and corporations among other groupings. They use their knowledge of statistical analysis, social behaviour and survey methods to question representative samplings of either the general population, or certain demographic groups regarding political issues.
Their job duties among other things, are to conduct research on specific issue or set of issues by reviewing reference material and conferring with clients, create or supervise the creation of carefully worded questions in order to generate clear response and devise strategies regarding how and when the survey will be conducted.
DUTIES OF POLLSTERS
They also perform interviews in person, over the phone, by email or online, analyze survey data, while being sure to adhere to recognised standards regarding the interpretation of complied data, communicate survey results to clients and ensure prompt and accurate assessment of findings.
Indeed, this is a specialised field with a clearly defined aims and objectives that will produce good, perfect and accurate results for clients so that they will depend or rely upon them to plan their strategies to promote their business objectives and other tangible assessment. The practitioners in this noble profession who may be political science degree holders or students pursuing political science in various tertiary institutions and universities as well as well- established institutions, have an in-depth knowledge about election and how it is conducted and above all a deep understanding about the whole process of election, data collection and gathering, interviews among others and are well trained to accomplish the noble task.
POLLSTER IS SPECIALISED JOB
It is important to state that not every person can just stand up and assume the role or title of pollster for the sake of it. You may have a little background on mathematics and data gathering and collection, but that will not guarantee you to be a pollster or to parade yourself as one since it is a specialised area. I am not a pollster and I cannot be one because I don’t have the qualities and pedigree to be one.
I am a journalist, but a very good one though, with the simple task of educating, informing and entertaining people about issues and events happening around them so that they will be well informed in order not to be left behind, fall astray or kept in the dark as far as news is concerned.
Besides, I continue to use my God-given talent to write about all manner of interesting articles for readers to assimilate and enjoy. I criticise when it is due and offer constructive suggestions when and where necessary. This is the type of profession and the job I have been trained to do and I enjoy it each and every day.
SELF-STYLED POLLSTERS
I have decided to go or follow this tangent because of the way some self-styled pollsters are churning out inaccurate results to Ghanaians of late, thus creating tension and anxiety in the political space. I do not intend to mention names of people or individuals involved in this falsehood but it is happening and the recent by-election in Kumawu in the Ashanti Region and Assin North in the Central Region, attested clearly to this fact.
I am not downplaying or degrading every pollster in this country but only cautioning that those who don’t have the pedigree to forecast and predict accurately need to advise themselves because their actions can cause controversy and chaos among the people. These ‘try and error’ predictions must give way to proper and constructive analysis and data collections that are result-oriented.
KUMAWU BY- ELECTION
In the Kumawu by-election that was held on May 23, 2022, it was clear and evident that the New Patriotic Party (NPP) was going to win the election hands down because the area is a stronghold of the party. You don’t need any pollster to predict the outcome of that election. It was a forgone conclusion for the NPP candidate, Ernest Yaw Annim who won by 70 per cent representing 15,264 votes with the National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate, Kwasi Amankwaa, obtaining 3,723 votes representing 17.29 per cent of the valid votes cast. The only duty of a pollster in the Kumawu by election is to predict whether there were appreciation or depreciation of votes for both candidates.
ASSIN NORTH BY-ELECTION
The Assin North by-election was a different ‘ball game’ altogether. The place had been a swing constituency with both the NDC and the NPP winning at a point in time during the general elections and that made that election very unique in terms of who would emerge the winner. More so, the candidates involved, especially the NDC candidate, James Gyakye Quayson, who was booted out of parliament by a Supreme Court ruling on his dual citizenship, gave cause for those pollsters to do their own predictions. The NDC defied all odds and fielded the embattled Quayson while the NPP as a strategy brought Charles Opoku from the same area where the NDC candidate hails from to provide a stiff opposition.
NPP IN ASSIN NORTH
Prior to that election, the NPP marshalled all resources including excavators and earth moving equipment to the constituency to re-shape some of their bad roads in the midst of rains. An astrotech football pitch had to be commissioned in the rain by the Vice President Alhaji Mahamudu Bawumia, all in an attempt to garner and gather more votes for the NPP candidates. The powerful team led by President Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo himself, travelled to the Assin North for a full-scale campaign for their candidate.
NDC AT ASSIN NORTH
The NDC with Its leader, John Dramani Mahama, MPs and party functionaries also went on campaign trail in the Assin North Constituency. Accra was virtually deserted on the election day. Days before the election in the Assin North, pollsters, some of whom were not known, started putting and throwing figures across based on survey they claimed they have conducted in the area, having spoken to a few people in the constituency. Most of these pollsters predicted a done deal for the NPP candidate because of the last-minute campaign by the President which gave them high hopes. However, their predictions did not materialise as Quayson managed to win convincingly with 17,245 votes representing 57.56 percent of the valid votes cast with the NPP Charles Opoku placing second with 12,630 votes representing 42.15 percent.
TRY AND ERROR POLLSTERS
All those scenarios pointed to the fact that the so-called pollsters were only engaged in a ‘try and error’ or speculation business, using the high -profile personalities involved in the campaign exercise as their yardstick, especially in the case of the Assin North by-election. In fact, there had been several occasions in the past when some of these most established institutions have had accurate results in their predictions, but this time round, they got everything wrong.
POLLSTERS AND 2024 ELECTIONS
Very soon, we will be heading towards the presidential and parliamentary elections and these organisations and individual pollsters will start doing their own thing to predict the outcome of the elections. Nobody is baring them from carrying out their individual mandate and there is no law in this country that bars any person or group of persons from carrying out election surveys and predicting the outcomes. However, in doing this self-assigned job, one need to be careful and circumspect about these outcomes in order not to deceive and cause disaffection among the populace. It is interesting to note that even so-called pastors, evangelists, prophets of doom and ‘what not’, have joined the fray of pollsters, predicting and churning out election results which eventually turned out to be false.
NPP FLAGBEARERSHIP RACE
Shortly, the NPP will be electing its flag-bearer in a hectic contest involving 10 contestants namely, Alhaji Mahamudu Bawumia, the current Vice President of Ghana, Mr. Allan Kwadwo Kyerematen, Boakye Agyarko, Kwabena Agyei Agyepong, Francis Addai-Nimoh, Dr Kofi Konadu Apraku, Dr. Owusu Afriyie Akoto, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, Joe Ghartey and Kwadwo Poku. All these contestants are reputable and qualified personalities who have what it takes to be the presidential nominee for the NPP. However, it is only one who will get the nod to lead the party in the 2024 presidential election.
As usual, the so-called pollsters, religious groupings and forecasters will be at their wit end doing their own thing and predicting the outcome of the primaries in what they termed data collection from delegates who will be casting their ballots to pick one among the lot. When they fail in their attempt with their “try and error” business, they will then turn to the supporters of the NPP and apologise for their ineffectiveness. We need to thread cautiously in this regard.
Contact email/WhatsApp of author: ataani2000@yahoo.com 0277753946/028933366
By Charles Neequaye
Features
The Prophet part 4
Antobam woke up with a terrible headache. He checked the time on his mobile phone, 2:30 am. “What! Where is the money?” He asked aloud. “Where are those girls? Why did I drink so much of that whisky? What were those two girls up to?” He sat up on the bed and noticed a bulge close to the pillow.
He lifted the mattress and picked up the newspaper wrappers with the neatly arranged notes. He saw the neatly written record of the value of the notes. No, those girls are not thieves.
“It was my mistake. If I hadn’t drank myself to sleep they would be here in bed with me, giving me the time of my life. Pretty girls, those two. And so loyal and honest. Tomorrow will be different.”
“I will not drink any whisky, and I will show them that I am a real man. Just then he heard the whispers. Very soon it will be time, they seemed to be saying. This is an important day.”
The gold dealer will bring lots of money. Give him some of the liquid to drink, and we will prepare him. He will do very big business, and he will give you anything you ask for. There will be more miracles and testimonies today.
Antobam smiled to himself. “I am going to be a very rich man in only a few days man. Money, power, and women. Wow! Antobam got to the grounds at 5, but there were quite a number of people waiting.
Mr Kwame Dofu was among them. He greeted them all, and they came around to shake his hand. “My brothers and sisters, I assure you that whatever your problem is, you will not go home without a solution.” Shouts of “Amen” “thank” you Osofo and “you are a true man of God” responded.
“Please take your seats, and start talking to the great one about whatever bothers you. Before the service is over, there will be a solution.” He waved Mr Dofu over, and went with him to the wooden structure that serves as a temporary office.
“My brother, I have done quite a lot of work on the issue you came to see me about. I have prepared a special, powerful package for you. Take this, drink it, and go back to your business. I want to see you in two weeks.”
Beaming with smiles, Mr Dofu drank the foul smelling liquid in two gulps, said a big thank you to Antobam and took his leave. “I believe you, Papa Osofo. And I assure you that I will reward you, big time.”
Just when Osofo Antubam finished with Mr Dofu, Mary and Suzzie went over to him. “Good Morning ladies. I am very sorry about yesterday. I drank too much of the stuff you gave me. Today will be different, I assure you.”
“Don’t worry, Osofo. Since you are now setting things up, our main concern now is to help you to put things in place, and to make you comfortable. We are always there to serve you. This morning, Osofo, we want to go and clean up your place, and prepare something nice for you when you close.
And before coming to church, we will pass by the bank and collect the forms. After you have signed them, the account will be open. You can check the payments anytime and, of course, issue cheques whenever you need money.”
“Suzzie and Mary, I am happy I picked the two of you from the very start. Listen, I will take good care of you, okay? Here is some money. Buy whatever you need for the errands you have mentioned.
And here is the key. Please come back as early as you can. You know I need you here.” The service was very lively. The lively singing of praise songs was followed by one and a half hours of testimonies.
Most of them related to money – big sales, new jobs and overdue debts paid. But there were also testimonies about healing. Barren women had taken seed, and, of course, several men who had lost their bedroom authority had regained them, to the delight of their partners.
As he had promised, Antobam preached for only 30 minutes, exhorting the congregation to attend church regularly, pay their tithes and offerings, and strictly follow his ‘directions’ for securing solutions to their problems.
After another round of praises during which the congregation danced to the floor to drop their offering, he closed the service, grabbed the big bowl which was full to the brim with money, and moved to his desk. A long queue was quickly formed at the desk.
Meanwhile, Mary and Suzzie had gone to give Antobam’s place quite a decent look. A new bedsheet and pillows, a secondhand carpet and four plastic chairs placed in the verandah had done the trick.
They also prepared two fish and chicken stews. After all these, they rushed to the National Savings Bank and collected application forms for opening current and savings accounts.
They joined the service a few minutes before the main session closed. Antobam looked round and saw, to his relief, Mary and Suzzie moving towards him. “Hello ladies. What have you been up to?” “Quite a bit, Osofo. We’ve just collected your drink. Here you are. We’ve made a few changes at your place. I think you will like it. You will also have something nice to eat. Now, here are the forms for the savings and current accounts.
If you will sign them, the bank will open the account. From today, we can pay all monies direct into the account.” ‘How can I thank you, ladies?” “You don’t need to thank us,” Suzzie said. “It is our duty to help a man of God succeed.” “Okay, my ladies, please take the offerings and count them as you did yesterday.
You can add the payments made after the consultations. Will it be possible to pay them into the account today?” “Yes,” Mary said. “The bank closes at four. If we leave here at three, we would be there just in time.”
The two friends started counting, as Osofo Antobam gave his clients his directions for solving their problems. On quite a few occasions he closed his eyes as if he was receiving direction from above on what to do.
But as the fetish priest at the Nana Kofi Broni shrine and the dwarfs had assured him, the solutions would certainly be provided. Having heard the huge testimonies earlier in the day, the clients parted with substantial sums of money in expectation.
By Ekow de Heer
Features
The issue of spiritual father in our churches
A student was supposed to go to school as the natural cause of events should be when universities or schools in general opens but this was not the case in a certain young man’s life.
He decided to postpone his trip because apparently he could not get to meet his pastor, his spiritual father. The question is, should this spiritual father die, will the young man’s life come to an end?
Does it mean in such an instance, he is going to curtail his education? This is a worrying trend in a lot of churches where the pastors use this notion of spiritual father to manipulate members especially the youth.
Some unscrupulous pastors utilise this spiritual father concept to have affairs with gullible young ladies in their churches.
Now with homosexuality gradually making inroads into some of the churches, young men are becoming vulnerable to pastors who have hidden homosexual inclinations.
This spiritual father concept is a Biblical concept that runs through both the Old Testament as well as the New Testament. We see it in 2 Kings 4:12 where Gehazi is serving Elisha and also in the New Testament we see Paul relating to Timothy in 1 Timothy 1:2 as a Spiritual Father.
In fact, the concept of spiritual father is a good thing if executed according to the word of God since it helps in guiding the younger ones. However, it becomes problematic when it is being executed by unscrupulous wolves in sheepskins as described by Jesus in Mathew 7:15.
I see it as a way that these unscrupulous so-called men of God maintain their hold on the congregants so they do not question their unchristian actions.
One of the things I have observed since I got born again many years ago is that, any pastor who often insists that members recognise that he is their spiritual father is a warning sign that he is doing some wrong things or is about to indulge in some wrong things.
A parent complained about how his daughter was being influenced by a pastor of the church she attends and how worried he was. I am sure there are many parents out there with stories to tell about how their wards are being made to see their pastors almost like their Jesus.
These pastors have managed to make their congregants so loyal to them and to believe in them so much that it is terrifying, as a parent.
The way things are going, an immediate intervention is required otherwise I am not a prophet of doom but I forsee unfortunate instances where parents burst into church auditoriums and star shooting some Pastors out of frustration and anger.
We cannot look on unconcerned as a society and allow unscrupulous fraudsters using the name of God to create problems for families. My recommendation is for a certain amount of regulation in order to bring some sanity in religious practices.
I agree that ordinarily regulating religious practices makes it a bit restrictive in terms of freedom of worship as enshrined in our constitution but given the way things are going, a bit of regulation will not be out of place.
Disgusting stuff are being attributed to some men of God. There are cases of manipulation of young ladies and sometimes married women by so called men of God and it is bringing Christianity and therefore the name of the Lord into disrepute.
Christianity is gradually losing its attractiveness as a result of the negative reportage resulting from disgusting stuff happening in Christian circles. The way some pastors have been manipulating congregants to take money from them leaves much to be desired to the point where they are convincing some of the youth to give out their phones. May God help us.
By Laud Kissi-Mensah