Features
Coronavirus – Are the Numbers of Cases Reliable?
Right now, we are being told that the novel coronavirus that causes the Covid-19 disease is such an existential threat to all of us that we need extreme measures to deal with it. More than half the world’s population is bunkered down at home under effective house arrest; a form of medical martial law prevails of the streets; most “nonessential” shops and businesses are closed; and trust and social contact between people has almost completely broken down. So is the threat from the new disease worthy of these unprecedented consequences?
Let’s take a close look at the figures. A good source of official data which is updated regularly is the Worldometers Coronavirus page.. The latest figures here as of the time of writing (25th April 2020) are shown by the following summary snapshot from the site:
So, at this time we have more than two and a quarter million cases and more than 150,000 deaths. That sounds pretty bad, right? But we can only put this into context if we compare with the numbers for deaths and cases from other, broadly similar diseases and, for deaths, by comparing with global death rates as a whole.
I will return to the subject of death rates later, but firstly let’s concentrate on case numbers: how are these numbers being calculated? We hear a lot about testing of suspected cases, but what do we know about these tests?
The first thing to note is that, perhaps contrary to popular belief, there is not one standard test being used around the world to test for coronavirus infection; each country is more or less using its own methodology.
Also, as I have discussed in a previous post, tests are not a magic 100% reliable indicator of whether someone has a disease or not. Some of them are really quite unreliable indeed. It’s actually quite a technical challenge to make accurate tests for common diseases, particular those caused by viruses. If it were that easy, the shops would be full of such test kits. Do you not think there would be a huge market for a simple, accurate home test for, say, the flu? And the market would undoubtedly be much bigger for home tests for embarrassing viral diseases such as herpes and sexually transmitted infections.
And even if it were possible to manufacture a fairly accurate test for a disease, if the disease you are testing for is uncommon (as is currently the case with Covid-19 despite all the media hype to the contrary) then the rate of false positives this test will give you will be really high. I will go into more detail on this later to illustrate that the world is largely suffering from a pandemic of false positives for Covid-19 rather than of the disease itself.
The general approach to testing for Covid-19 can be gauged from the US Centre for Disease Control’s (CDC’s) web pages on testing and their information for laboratories doing Covid-19 testing. So, let’s take a look at the two main types of testing that are being done for Covid-19 around the world right now: polymerase chain reaction (PCR) based tests and serology/antibody-based tests.
PCR Based Tests
Many SARS-CoV-2 tests are based on what is called “Reverse Transcription Polymerase Chain Reaction” or RT-PCR. This is a type of more general process called the polymerase chain reaction (PCR). Wikipedia gives good general explanations of the principles of PCR testing as a whole, as well as the type of RT-PCR tests used for Covid-19 testing.
Without going into too many technical details here, the general idea of a PCR test is to take a sample from a patient and multiply up all the target DNA in the sample (using the polymerase chain reaction, PCR). The target DNA sequence used is designed to try and uniquely identify the target virus or bacteria so that if this sequence is found you can be reasonably sure you have found the target organism.
Serology/Antibody Based Tests
Given all the problems with PCR based testing, some companies and countries are investigating the use of antibody-based tests instead. The idea here is to try and detect antibodies – proteins produced by the body to fight infection – against the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the blood or other bodily fluids of a patient. The UK is working on getting antibody tests available in bulk for their population. The CDC in the US is also looking at developing such tests.
I won’t discuss these kinds of tests in so much detail because most countries including our own Ghana and health care systems are still mainly reliant on RT-PCR based testing. This is partly because accurate antibody tests are not widely available, being both difficult and time consuming to prepare in great numbers. But suffice to say that antibody tests, even when they have been successfully manufactured, are also subject to many problems too.
BY RISK OFORIWAA DAUDA
Features
The power of change: Understanding the process and catalysts
CHANGE is an inevitable and essential aspect of life, shaping individuals, organizations, and societies. It can be transformative, leading to growth, innovation, and progress. But how is change created?
This comprehensive article explores the process and catalysts of change.
The Change Process
The change process involves several stages:
1. Awareness: Recognising the need for change.
2. Assessment: Evaluating the current state.
3. Visioning: Envisioning the desired future state.
4. Planning: Developing strategies and action plans.
5. Implementation: Executing the plan.
6. Evaluation: Monitoring progress and making adjustments.
Catalysts of Change
Several factors can catalyse change:
1. Internal Motivation: Personal or organisational desire for improvement.
2. External Pressures: Market trends, technological advancements, or regulatory requirements.
3. Leadership: Visionary leaders driving change.
4. Crisis: Forced change due to unexpected events.
5. Innovation: New ideas and technologies.
Types of Change
Change can be:
1. Incremental: Gradual, small-scale changes.
2. Transformational: Radical, large-scale changes.
3. Strategic: Planned, deliberate changes.
4. Emergent: Spontaneous, unplanned changes.
Change Management
Effective change management involves:
1. Communication: Clear messaging and stakeholder engagement.
2. Training: Developing skills and knowledge.
3. Support: Providing resources and guidance.
4. Monitoring: Tracking progress and addressing challenges.
Resistance to Change
Resistance can arise due to:
1. Fear: Uncertainty and anxiety.
2. Habit: Comfort with the status quo.
3. Lack of Understanding: Insufficient information.
4. Power Dynamics: Threats to authority or control.
Overcoming Resistance
Strategies to overcome resistance include:
1. Education: Providing information and context.
2. Involvement: Engaging stakeholders in the change process.
3. Support: Addressing concerns and fears.
4. Leadership: Demonstrating commitment and vision.
Sustaining Change
To sustain change:
1. Embed Change: Integrate new practices and behaviors.
2. Monitor Progress: Continuously evaluate and adjust.
3. Celebrate Successes: Recognize achievements.
4. Maintain Momentum: Keep the change process moving.
Conclusion
Change is a complex and multifaceted process. Understanding the change process, catalysts, and management strategies can help individuals and organizations navigate and create meaningful change.
Recommendations
1. Develop a Change Mindset: Embrace change as an opportunity.
2. Build Change Capacity: Develop skills and resources.
3. Foster a Culture of Change: Encourage innovation and experimentation.
By Robert Ekow Grimmond-Thompson
Features
This question of love
The question of love is something that will be talked about until kingdom come.
A discussion I observed on the internet about a 19 year old who had accepted the proposal of a 67 year old man reminded me of the preaching of Pastor Mensa Otabil.
He talked about the a scenario where a 60 year old man enters into a relationship with a 22 year old lady and the lady tells him I love you, when he has a protruded belly, with all the accompanying creases and he believes what she says.
He further went on to say that a whole grown up man, allows a young lady to call him “babe” and he does not feel offended.
He further went on to preach that, this young lady, young enough to be his daughter, says “babe, I love you” and this man sheepishly laughs and does not realise, he is being taken advantage of.
What keeps ringing in my ears is his statement that “what is there to love about a protruding sagging belly?”
There is no regulated way for how a person falls in love. It reminds me of a funny statement that Pastors or marriage counsellors often use, that if you fall in love, you may hurt yourself.
Love I believe is a beautiful thing but it is not something that should be toyed with. People getting into relationships should consider the realities that are bound to happen as the years go by.
Jealousy is a very destructive influence. It can influence a person to harm his wife or her husband or to even commit murder. There has been countless reported instances where a man has poured acid on his wife or girlfriend, slashed his wife to death with a cutlass because he suspected, the wife was cheating on him.
It is something that blinds one to right reasoning and once your reasoning stops functioning, then the wrong side of us takes over and the result is nothing to write home about. In most cases, it comes out after the horrible act has been perpetrated, that there was no truth in the issue that caused the jealousy, after all. However, a life would have been maimed, disfigured or destroyed forever.
One of the causes of jealousy in marriage is the age gap difference. Whether we like it or not we shall grow old one day if God by his grace enables us to live long. When we grow old, a lot of changes occur in our bodies and things we used to do with ease, suddenly become a huge challenge and it could be very frustrating.
One of the things that drives a man crazy is when he has grown weaker in bed and sees the wife interacting with younger men in a suspicious manner that seems to suggest that there is more to it than meets the eye.
Jealousy will definitely be kindled in the heart of such a man whose wife is far younger than him like this 67 year old man wanting to marry a 19 year young lady.
In 30 years’ time, this man will be 97 and his muscles would have become weaker affecting his erection. His wife would be 49 and will have to be satisfied in bed in a manner that this man cannot execute. What do you think is going to happen?
Marriage Counsellors advocate that the ideal age gap between marriage partners should not be more than 10 years. This is one way to eliminate suspicions which results in mistrust when the man grows old and gets weaker because it is a known fact that sex is very important to men than women.
A man becomes very worried when his sexual performance level drops. This is what causes some men to act in a manner that is condemnable. My advice, walk into love, don’t fall into it. God bless.
NB: ‘CHANGE KOTOKA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT TO KOFI BAAKO INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT
By Laud Kissi-Mensah
